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June 23, 2008 The Ramifications of a Split in the Polo Democrático By the end of a meeting held last week by members of Colombia’s Polo Democrático Alternativo, it had become increasingly likely that the party was going to split into two separate entities at some point in the not too distant future, according to one party member. Many of the more moderate members, led by former Bogotá mayor Luis Eduardo “Lucho” Garzón, appear to be leaning towards abandoning the Polo and establishing a new party. The remaining, more leftist, members, including current party president Carlos Gaviria, would likely continue under the banner of the Polo Democrático. Such a split, were it to occur, could have serious ramifications, not only for the 2010 presidential and congressional elections, but also for the prospects for achieving peace in Colombia. According to a party member who attended last week’s meeting, the gathering turned explosive as moderate members—mostly those situated between the center and the center-left—advocated forming a new party. This faction included Lucho Garzón, current Bogotà mayor Samuel Moreno, Angelino Garzón and Maria Ema Mejía. Evidently, the new party would form an alliance with the Liberal Party for the 2010 presidential elections with Lucho Garzón as the proposed candidate—Moreno would be the proposed candidate for the 2014 elections. One Polo member claimed that the breakaway party does not want to include in its ranks current members of the Polo who belong to the Communist Party, the Colombian Communist Youth or those who are former guerrillas. While it had previously been suggested that the existing Polo was also considering an alliance with the Liberal Party for 2010 should Uribe run again, evidently current party president Carlos Gaviria rejected any such possibility at last week’s meeting. Gaviria would head the surviving Polo, which would likely result in a shift to the left for the party. Along with Gaviria, the surviving Polo’s prominent members would be Jorge Robledo, Wilson Borja and Gloria Ramírez. Interestingly, high-profile Polo Senator Gustavo Petro has remained conspicously silent on the issue of a potential split in the party. One of the more immediate ramifications of such a split would be a serious undermining of the possibility of a left-of-center victory in the 2010 presidential elections. A unified Polo would be a serious contender for the presidency, particularly if President Uribe did not run again. While a split in the Polo would likely increase the possibility of victory for the breakaway faction—if it did indeed form an alliance with the Liberal Party—such a victory would not represent a major change in the country’s political power structures. After all, the more centrist members of the breakaway faction would simply be aligned with one of the country’s traditional elite political parties, therefore it is doubtful that any significant shift to the left would occur under such a government. Interestingly, in an interview conducted one year ago, the late FARC commander Raúl Reyes proved to be eerily prescient when he explained some of the rebel group’s concerns with the Polo Democrático:
The social democrats that Reyes referred to would be in the breakaway moderate faction should a split occur and, through their alliance with the Liberal Party, would indeed end up representing the interests of Colombia’s “bourgeoisie.” A split in the Polo would likely diminish the prospects of the surviving, more leftist, party faction winning the presidency in 2010. Ironically, however, an electoral victory by the surviving leftist Polo would present Colombia with its most promising prospect for peace in decades. During the same interview, conducted eight months before his death, Reyes was asked about the prospects for peace between the FARC and the government if the Polo were to win the presidency in 2010. He simply stated, “It would depend on their policies.” It is highly doubtful that the breakaway moderate faction of the Polo—allied with the Liberal Party—would implement policies that seriously challenge the country’s political, social and economic status quo. On the other hand, a more leftist Polo might well implement policies that would be sufficiently amenable to the FARC that they would open the door to a peace process. There is still a lot of time between now and the 2010 elections and, in Colombia`s current topsy-turvy political climate, anything could happen. But if the Polo does indeed split into two parties, it would likely have serious ramifications for both the 2010 elections and for the prospects for peace.
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